Bitcoin Breakout Gains Strength as WBTC Outflows Reach Six-Week High

• Bitcoin manages to remain above important support levels; however, it meets solid resistance levels at the 50-day moving average.
• The WBTC exchanges saw outflows to an extent not seen for six weeks now, limiting the supply available on the exchange.
• Bitcoin has to hold above key support levels or the breakout will weaken. 

BTC/USD price movement is dependent on the ability of the cryptocurrency to consolidate its breakout after breaking above a falling wedge setup. Bitcoin was trading at roughly $64,707 after having gained 3.32% during the last 24 hours, having recovered from levels below $62,500. 

The price action has seen the price break out of a technical area where previous recoveries have been reversed.

Price Forecast of Bitcoin Is Dependent on Maintaining Support Levels

The BTC/USD price moved above a falling wedge structure; however, the breakout is still at an early stage and is yet to be confirmed.

At $63,662, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level is just under the 50-day SMA, which currently stands around $64,111. The same price zone constrained the attempts of Bitcoin to recover in June, and therefore, the present situation is more important than a usual breakout of a declining trendline.

From a technical perspective, confirmation will come if the prior resistance turns into support. Thus, two consecutive days of closing above the level of about $64,100 within the next three to five days will confirm that bulls managed to remain in charge after the breakout.

Source: Trading View

The Momentum indicators have been further strengthened. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 55.4 and continues to remain above the signal line as well as the neutral 50 mark. The value indicates improving momentum but does not go up to values that indicate overbought status.

Technical Level Indicators

Key Factors for Supporting the Current Breakout

• Support zone under consideration: Bitcoin is currently trying to move above the former resistance zone near $64,100 after having broken out of the wedge formation.
• Momentum is improving: RSI still above 50, indicating an improvement in buying momentum but no overbought condition.
• Exchange balances declined: Santiment reported the largest net WBTC exchange outflow since early June, reducing immediately available exchange supply.

Resistance Levels Continue to Define the Next Move

Although Bitcoin has cleared the falling wedge pattern, it remains below three declining major moving averages, meaning the breakout continues into a series of technical resistance zones rather than an open trading range.

The first upside objective remains the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $67,340. Beyond that, Bitcoin would encounter another technical barrier around $70,312, which sits close to the declining 100-day SMA near $70,600.

Another area of resistance is seen at $73,284, where the 0.618 Fibonacci level lines up with the 200-day SMA at $73,515. The convergence of these indicators creates another significant technical ceiling.

The $63,600 to $65,000 range has also rejected multiple recovery attempts during recent months. Maintaining price above this region would support the current breakout structure, while failure to hold it would leave the latest rally vulnerable to reversal.

WBTC Exchange Outflows Reach Six-Week High

On-chain data introduced another development after 326 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) tokens were withdrawn from Ethereum exchanges within a single day.

According to Santiment, the movement represented the largest net WBTC exchange outflow since early June, reducing the amount of Wrapped Bitcoin immediately available for trading on exchanges.

The analytics platform reported that the withdrawals occurred while Bitcoin continued trading through a period influenced by geopolitical developments and changing exchange-traded fund flows. Santiment said the six-week high in WBTC outflows provided another positive data point alongside the broader cryptocurrency market recovery.

Wrapped Bitcoin was introduced in 2019 through a joint initiative involving BitGo, Kyber Network, and Ren. It remains the largest tokenized version of Bitcoin with a market capitalization of about $7.6 billion. 

The space has become more competitive due to the arrival of cbBTC by Coinbase in 2024 and cirBTC by Circle on the Ethereum blockchain last month.

On-Chain Highlights

• 326 WBTC exited the Ethereum exchanges in just one day.
• It was Santiment’s highest net outflow from exchanges since early June.
• Reduced exchange balances decreased the available supply of WBTC for immediate trade.

Whale Transfers and Exchange Actions Under Scrutiny

The Blockchain logs have also revealed numerous Bitcoin transfer transactions from wallets owned by Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, Upbit, and Bitget.

The biggest transaction revealed by the logs involved around 335.8 BTC which is valued at about $21 million between wallets controlled by Coinbase. There were other Bitcoin transfers between exchanges and deposit wallets belonging to various exchanges.

Blockchain logs confirmed that such transactions took place. They did not provide evidence that any of these transactions led to Bitcoin sales on the market.

Other significant transactions included one made by a Bitcoin wallet which was inactive for over seven years. The holder transferred 2,931 BTC, valued at approximately $188 million, to a newly created wallet. The receiving address has not recorded additional activity since the transfer.

Separately, Strategy remained under observation after authorizing up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales. Reports also indicated that the company has already sold approximately $218 million worth of Bitcoin this year.

Key Risks to Watch

• Major resistance remains overhead: The 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to sit above the current market price.
• The support should remain intact; a daily close below $63,000 will weaken the breakout pattern formation, while a decline below $62,000 will see BTC return to its former channel formation.
• Transfer information is neutral: Block chain provides transfer history but doesn’t prove if there is any sale of the BTC asset.

BTC Price Forecast Depends on Daily Closes

The technical setup keeps presenting both upside potential and downside risk. Above the 50-day SMA will help maintain the breakout and focus on resistance at $67,340, $70,600, and $73,515.

On the other hand, closing below $63,000 each day will reduce the strength of the breakout move, whereas closing below $62,000 will bring attention back to the psychological $60,000 support level and the low from June at $57,800. The following few days should determine whether Bitcoin is able to keep its current breakout setup or revert back to its old trading range.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Bitcoin trading above $64,000?

Bitcoin recently broke above a falling wedge pattern and moved above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement while testing the 50-day simple moving average near $64,111.

What is the next resistance level for Bitcoin?

The next technical resistance is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $67,340, followed by the 100-day SMA near $70,600 and the 200-day SMA near $73,515.

What is the importance of WBTC exchange outflows?

According to Santiment, 326 WBTC were taken off exchanges on the Ethereum network in just a day, which was the largest outflow of its kind in recent times.