Key Insights
- The Zcash rally may be driven by short-term capital rotation rather than long-term conviction.
- The momentum slowed at the top as prices retreated following the steep rise.
- According to Pal, the durability depends on the ability to hold on after speculative interest has died.
Zcash’s sharp advance has drawn attention across digital asset markets, yet some macro observers view the move as fragile. Real Vision founder Raoul Pal said the recent surge in the privacy-focused cryptocurrency reflects short-term capital shifts rather than a confirmed trend with lasting strength.
Speaking on the When Shift Happens podcast with Kevin Follonier, Pal stated that price action alone does not establish long-term confidence. He noted that traders often rotate into smaller or specific assets during uneven market phases, creating fast gains that fade once capital moves elsewhere.
Additionally, since the beginning of Jan, the token has gained approximately 699%, trading at around $385, as the CoinMarketCap figures indicate. The momentum has been flattened, and the prices have declined by approximately 37% in the last 30 days.
Rotation Versus Structural Demand
Pal stated that broader market behavior remains the key measure. He explained that conviction becomes clear only when an asset continues to rise alongside the wider market rather than losing strength as capital rotates.
According to Pal, current trading patterns align with a rotation-driven move rather than a structural shift in demand.
He claimed that an early arrival has low importance unless there are any long-term trends in the relocation.
According to him, early entry status holds little value without confirmation from sustained trends. Pal stated that broader market behavior remains the key measure. He explained that conviction becomes clear only when an asset continues to rise alongside the wider market rather than losing strength as capital rotates.
Pal urged that the current trading patterns align with a rotation-driven move rather than a structural shift in demand. Durability depends on whether buyers remain active after speculative interest eases.
Support Levels Will Shape the Next Phase
Focus has shifted to Zcash’s ability to stabilize after its steep climb. Pal said forming a clear base would show that longer-term holders are willing to absorb selling pressure. A failure to hold support would reinforce the view that the rally was driven by short-term positioning.
Despite strong year-to-date results, Pal said current levels do not justify aggressive buying. He indicated that interest could return during a broader market pullback.
Zcash has also moved independently of the wider crypto market. While major assets declined, ZEC continued rising through late summer and early autumn. Its market capitalization expanded from below $1 billion in August to more than $7 billion at its November peak.
