Key Insights:
- HYPE token price targets $150 amid spikes in HIP-3 activity and open interest hitting new highs.
- Oil and metals perpetuals rise amid US-Iran tensions, and higher charges increase token burn.
- Hayes links Fed easing cycles to conflict and says liquidity shifts may aid Bitcoin.
HYPE’s price has come into the spotlight following projections by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes that the HYPE token will soon surge to $150, citing increased activity in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 permission less perpetual futures market.
Source: Co-Founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes
Hayes linked his projection to measurable growth in trading metrics rather than broader sentiment. His target followed a period in which Hyperliquid’s commodity-linked perpetual markets experienced increased participation during geopolitical volatility in the Middle East.
HYPE Token Price Tied to HIP-3 Activity Surge
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market, launched in October, has recorded sustained growth in open interest and trading volume. In January, open interest reached an all-time high of more than $793 million, according to previously reported figures.
At that time, heightened trading in oil contracts contributed to a 25% increase in the HYPE token price. According to recent data, this motion continues to accelerate, with Oil-USDH perpetuals rising by over 5% to $73.12 and USOIL-USDH perpetuals hitting a new high of over $88.
Nevertheless, combined trading volume across the two contracts reached $17 million over 24 hours, while open interest exceeded $9 million during the same period.
Precious metals contracts also advanced. Gold and silver perpetuals posted gains as markets absorbed developments related to tensions between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran.
Moreover, data indicate that open interest reached a new all-time high shortly after the United States launched its attack on Iran. DefiLlama protocols have reported receiving $2.8 million in fees over the last 24 hours. In the meantime, approximately 9 million HYPE tokens have been burnt over the past 7 days. That figure represents a 20.4% increase compared with the prior week.
Hayes stated that this level of activity could support further gains in the HYPE token price, referencing the direct relationship between derivatives trading volume and token supply reduction through burns.
Geopolitical Tensions push Hyperliquid Commodities Trading escalation of oil and metals perpetually has been accompanied by an increase in geopolitical risk. However, data indicate that U.S. open interest reached a new all-time high after the launch strikes, after which derivatives volumes accelerated. Both increased speculative positioning have therefore influenced the HYPE token price in commodity-linked perpetuals and the protocol’s built-in fee allocation system.
Hayes references past Federal Reserve reactions.
In addition to platform-specific information, Hayes has cited the Federal Reserve activities of past geopolitical wars. He reviewed the decisions of the monetary policy as early as 1985, when interest rates were lowered following the Middle East escalations.
During the 1990 Gulf War under President George H.W. Bush, the Federal Reserve initially kept interest rates unchanged. However, Federal Open Market Committee statements from August 1990 acknowledged uncertainty linked to Middle East events. By November and December of that year, the Fed cut rates, citing weaker business and consumer confidence.
After the September 11, 2001, attacks and the launch of the Global War on Terror under President George W. Bush, the Federal Reserve implemented a 50-basis-point emergency rate cut.
Hayes stated that if President Donald Trump were to pursue extended military engagement with Iran, government spending and geopolitical risk could increase. He indicated that such conditions may resemble prior periods of monetary easing.
In that context, he said investors should monitor Federal Reserve rate decisions and liquidity measures. He added that Bitcoin has historically benefited during periods of lower interest rates and expanded money supply.
