Key Insights:
- Bitcoin held near $67,000 despite a Supreme Court ruling challenging Trump-era tariffs and renewed discussion around $150 billion in potential refunds.
- Inflation and weak GDP data reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, limiting enthusiasm across risk assets.
- Technical analysts continue to warn that Bitcoin remains vulnerable unless resistance above $70,000 is convincingly reclaimed.
Bitcoin opened Thursday trading with limited volatility, holding close to the $67,000 level as traders absorbed a major U.S. Supreme Court ruling.
TradingView market data revealed that the price action of Bitcoin was condensing in a tight band, despite U.S. equities tightening an inch higher.Although the news was legal, the overall reaction in the risk assets was subdued, with uncertainty on the extent to which the ruling was going to affect them.
The fact that Bitcoin was not responding strongly indicated that players were not focusing on technical positioning and macroeconomic indicators but instead were responding to political developments in real-time.
Supreme court ruling targets trump tariff authority
The United States Supreme Court said that some of the tariffs declared under the emergency powers were beyond the power of the president, which caused new controversy in the financial markets.In its opinion which runs over 170 pages the Court has asserted that the act of imposing tariffs was not authorised by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act upon presidents operating on their own.
The decision however affirmed that not all of the current tariffs are invalidated leaving the possibility of wholesale dismantling of the wider tariff system.Consequently, the market response remained rather hesitant and the traders were balancing partial legal certainty with uncertainties about future enforcement of trading.
There was also a lot of speculation that tariff refund could be used, and this would provide a lot of liquidity in the economy should such a move be taken.The Kobeissi Letter forecasted that the total amount of refunds might be up to $150 billion, and the verdict could be considered one of the most important trade judgments in decades.
Though the conversation has been spreading like wildfire on social media, there has been no established method of refund and so market is held in a wait and watch position.
Bitcoin price action overshadowed by macro data
Bitcoin’s consolidation occurred alongside weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, which ultimately overshadowed the legal developments for many investors.The Federal Reserves favorite index of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, increased to 3%, the highest level of the index since the end of late 2023.
Concurrently, the growth rate of the fourth quarter 2025 GDP weakened to 1.4%, which is below expectations that had anticipated a growth of about 3%.These numbers contributed to fears that inflation is proving to be sticky as the economy growth slows, making the future of the monetary policy a challenge.
According to probabilities that are monitored by the CME Group, rate-cut expectations dropped drastically after the release of the data.There is only 4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the March Federal Reserve meeting according to the FedWatch Tool.This shift limited upside across risk assets, including Bitcoin, as traders recalibrated expectations for liquidity-driven rallies.
Bitcoin Traders Warn Of Downside Risks
Bitcoin market participants still raised red flags on technical risks, which stated that the overall trend is still weak even though it had been stable in the short run.Analyst Rekt capital emphasized the significance of 200-week exponential moving average, with Bitcoin running the chance of inverting long-term support into opposition.
Historical trends indicate that recurrent weekly closes below this number tend to be followed by an increase in the downward movement during prolonged bearish periods.These arrangements have been observed to signify shifts between consolidation towards intense corrective patterns.
Skew, another trader, characterized the existing price range as the emergent value zone instead of the established reversal.On his analysis, the consistent supply is around the $70,000 range whereas off the consistent demand has been around the range of the $65,000.Any strong action above $70,000 would probably bring the trend from the continuation mode and a failure less than $65,000 would probably welcome fresh selling pressure.
Bitcoin is stuck between these ranges, and it has been found that the $72,000 is one of the points that invalidate the existing downward bias.Bitcoin seems to consolidate until it breaks out in a sustained way, a phenomenon that is indicative of some uncertainty in policy, inflation, and economic growth.
