Key Insights
- Bitcoin dipped during weekend trading, while Michael Saylor hinted at another potential purchase.
- Japan’s rate hike expectations increased fear, even as some analysts say the risk is already priced in.
- ETFs take supply, yet prices are weak, with options activity indicating an uneven market confidence.
Strategy chair Michael Saylor has indicated another potential Bitcoin purchase as prices weakened during late Sunday trading. Bitcoin dropped to a two-week low of $87,600 on Coinbase, according to Trading View data, continuing a pattern of sharp weekend declines seen in recent weeks.
In an update on X, Saylor posted “Back to More Orange Dots” alongside a portfolio chart, signaling renewed accumulation. According to Strategy Tracker, the firm now holds more than 708,000 BTC, valued at approximately $59 billion at the current BTC price of $89,273.
https://twitter.com/saylor/status/2000197722716962874
Bitcoin Volatility Persists as Japan Rate Decision Nears
Saylor’s post hints at continued confidence in Bitcoin, but market sentiment indicates otherwise. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to below 21, with the market firmly in the extreme fear region. Moreover, the levels have remained around that mark over the past couple of weeks, indicating continued uncertainty among traders.
Moreover, attention has shifted toward Japan’s central bank as a potential driver of selling pressure. Some analysts cite expectations of an interest rate hike as a key macroeconomic risk. Polymarket data shows a 98% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 0.25% on Friday.
Renowned crypto analyst “No Limit” warned that Japan’s policy shifts have historically coincided with sharp downturns in Bitcoin. The argument centres on Japan’s large holdings of U.S. debt and the potential for global liquidity tightening following rate adjustments.
However, others argue the outcome is already reflected in prices. Analyst Sykodelic said markets typically move ahead of known events, limiting the impact once decisions are formally announced.
Analyst d’Anethan expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $80,000 and $100,000 as traders wait for a catalyst that may fail to materialize in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Slips as Trading Activity Increases
Building more on this sentiment, Bitcoin is trading at $89,583, declining by 0.78% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing. The trading volume was recorded at $70.97 billion, representing a 12.57% increase, according to CoinMarketCap.
Additionally, several market observers expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound. Price expectations range between $80,000 and $100,000 as traders await a clear catalyst.
According to Park, the absence of the BTC price trading higher is due to additional sales by early Bitcoin adopters, who often sell call options, thereby contributing to the circulating supply.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to absorb spot supply; however, this has not had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price, given the current institutional scepticism. An example is Vanguard, which recently stepped up its opposition to Bitcoin by labelling it as speculative, yet still allows clients to access Bitcoin ETFs.
Furthermore, Park stated that the activities of options are marked by an apparent gap between the Bitcoin ETF offered by BlackRock, IBIT, and the Bitcoin market as a whole. He argued that the IBIT options exhibit a positive call deviation, meaning that traders are paying a premium for upside protection.
