Key insights:
- Arthur Hayes links Bitcoin’s long-term upside to geopolitical tensions, arguing that a potential U.S.–Iran conflict could trigger an oil shock that forces central banks to inject liquidity into global markets.
- Rising oil prices and inflation expectations could pressure the Federal Reserve to resume monetary easing, a scenario Hayes believes would drive new capital into BTC as an inflation hedge.
- Despite short-term price weakness, Hayes maintains a long-term bullish outlook, projecting Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026 if global instability leads to renewed monetary expansion.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, also believes that a major Bitcoin value increase could trigger as the U.S. and Iran intensify their confrontation.
He says an oil shock due to the possible war between the United States and Iran would drive the Federal Reserve to print money again.
This, in its turn, might take the prices of Bitcoin to new heights. Geopolitical uncertainty and skyrocketing oil prices can be the onset of much-anticipated Bitcoin bull run (Hayes).
Geopolitical tensions and Bitcoin’s surge
Hayes explains that the upheaval posed by the possibility of a war with Iran and a rise in oil prices would most probably put the Federal Reserve on the move once again, triggering its monetary easing policies.
The price of the Brent crude oil has already increased by 24% in the recent past with instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil route threatening to take the price higher.
With the rising oil prices Treasury yields and inflation expectations increase, which is the next liquidity wave according to Hayes, which would push Bitcoin to the high price targets.
The fed’s likely response to oil shock
Hayes argues that the current crisis would be a replica of the economic situation in past crises where the bond market was stressed by the increasing price of energy.
When the volatility of bonds goes high, the Fed would have had no option but to intervene and start doing its money printing to counter the situation.
Bitcoin’s upward forecast of $250,000 by 2026, and even higher in the future of $750,000, by Hayes, is based on the assumption that the world will turn to fiscal policies as supported through central bank action.
Bitcoin would be in a great position as an anti-inflation insurance and a store of value.
A critical test for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is performing poorly even though the optimistic predictions by Hayes have been realized. The digital asset has been unable to sustain its price after reaching a high in October 2025, around $126,000, and is around the latest price of $68000.
This happens despite an increase in geopolitical tensions, and the prices of oil are soaring.
Hayes points out that patience is the most important attribute since Bitcoin is yet to see hard action by the Fed as it cuts down rates and expands its balance sheet.
According to him, this is a key measure towards the anticipated surge because the rise of Bitcoin will rely on central bank intervention.
Hayes has argued that Bitcoin was only supercharged in case of a geopolitical crisis, which causes the market to become more uncertain, forcing the Fed to change its monetary policy decision. Should that occur, IT will gain on the liquidity and inflation hedging.
Future Bitcoin price targets
Although BTC is currently trading below the peak, Hayes is not so sure that its price movement will remain the same in future.He targets at 250,000 by 2026 and even greater amounts in subsequent years. That however, requires the economic environments to coalesce, with the increasing oil prices and instability in the world, forming the ideal storm.
The argument of Hayes is based on oil prices. The increase in the price of oil and the geopolitical risk factor may bring inflationary forces, which will drive up the value of BTC through its increasing attractiveness as an asset.
The popularity of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset does not end. With the rising inflationary risks, the digital currency will gain strength since the investors will be looking at assets that will not be as susceptible to government intervention or debasement of currency.
According to Arthur Hayes, the BTC can still be supercharged. With the ongoing increases in geopolitical instability and surging oil prices, the Fed might be compelled to interfere and the Bitcoin value may explode.
But, in the case of this situation, one has to wait because the future of Bitcoin will be determined by policy measures that are still not implemented.
