- Nasdaq MRX binary options will offer yes-or-no contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index.
- The contracts are cash settled and priced at 1 cent to 1 dollar.
- Other exchanges and crypto companies are growing event-based trading products.
Nasdaq MRX has filed to introduce cash-settled, binary-style options tied to the Nasdaq-100 Index, marking a new development in the expansion of event-based trading products across regulated U.S. exchanges.
Nasdaq MRX binary options as outcome-related contracts
In a recent filing, the New York-based exchange plans to offer outcome-based contracts that will enable traders to take a yes-or-no stance on the direction of a leading stock index. The proposed product would apply to both the Nasdaq-100 Index and the Nasdaq-100 Micro Index, with contracts priced between 1 cent and $1.
The filing describes that the Nasdaq MRX binary options will be cash-settled and based on defined outcomes. The traders would buy contracts that depended heavily on a binary outcome, with prices ranging from $0.01 to $1.00 based on market expectations.
The exchange referred to the product as an options contract rather than a conventional prediction market instrument, which is consistent with the available securities frameworks. In addition, the Nasdaq-100 Micro Index would provide a smaller-sized alternative designed to accommodate different trading preferences.
By structuring contracts within the options market, Nasdaq MRX is proposing its first offering that mirrors certain aspects of prediction market products. Binary options fall under the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As a result, the proposed contracts would be subject to established securities oversight rather than commodity market regulation. The filing underscores the exchange’s effort to adapt a prediction-style format within a regulated options environment.
Exchange Operators Expand Event-Based Trading Products
Nasdaq MRX’s filing comes as other exchange operators advance similar initiatives. The step comes after the development of event-based platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have attracted attention for offering contracts based on specific outcomes.
Moreover, CME Group, under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has also made efforts to increase the number of event-specific contracts in the regulated derivatives space. Recently, CME Group formed a partnership with the American gambling company FanDuel, allowing market participants to access contracts that exceed conventional financial standards.
In the meantime, Cboe Global Markets has also declared that it will roll out its own variant of event contracts in the second quarter of the year, with business and economic events taking precedence over sports. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also launched a program called Future-Proof, which is aimed at updating the regulation of digital assets and prediction markets.
Prediction Market Segment Launches Asset Managers and Crypto Platforms.
In addition to exchange operators, asset managers, and crypto platforms have been interested in having exposure to the growing prediction market segment. Bitwise Asset Management filed with the SEC to introduce “PredictionShares” exchange-traded funds intended to hold event contracts linked to the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
Nevertheless, crypto exchanges have also incorporated event-based products into their offerings. In late December, Coinbase launched prediction markets on its site, allowing digital asset traders to access contracts based on political, economic, and cultural events. At the same time, MetaMask also added Polymarket features to its mobile application, allowing users to select markets and fund balances directly in the app.
All these trends demonstrate the overlap between conventional finance and digital infrastructure in the development of prediction-style markets. According to industry statistics, the global prediction market industry was estimated at $17.49 billion in 2025.However, It is projected to grow to over $21.24 billion in 2026, and by 2035, the forecast is over $ 113.46 billion. It is against this background that Nasdaq MRX binary options are a securities-based strategy that taps demand in an expanding segment. Nasdaq is also considering listing outcome-related options on its other exchanges, including Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX.
