Key Insights
- Bitcoin fell about 16.8% in November and this pushed it to hit shakeout zones suggesting that short-term selling may fuel long-term accumulation.
- Market cap rose to $1.85T but BTC exchange balances dropped significantly indicating continued demand despite the monthly price drop.
- Historically, Bitcoin’s December average gains have always been above 4%, this is giving hopes of a rebound if shakeout and accumulation persist.
Bitcoin underwent a tough November, and has ended the month down 16.8%. However, historical trends are suggesting potential for a rebound in December. The market seems to be responding positively as shakeout behavior persists and long-term holders continue accumulating.Furthermore a rise in marketcap is a clear indication of continued resilient investor demand amid the ongoing market turmoil.
Market Seasonality and Monthly Behavior
Through a post on X,Cointelegraph shared a monthly heatmap capturing Bitcoin’s price action from 2013 to 2025. According to the data there are recurring seasonal patterns:early months of the year are typically stronger followed by halving years. Usually, these two periods show notable momentum.
February has always delivered the highest average monthly return, and on the flipside September has been consistently the weakest. Furthermore, halving years, including 2016, 2020, and 2024, recorded notable surges around the halving months.
Notable examples include April 2020 and December 2020 which demonstrated high renewed momentum after periods of consolidation. Recent years have reflected a more mature market, whereby, in 2023, Bitcoin showed relatively balanced movement that saw 2024 start strong.
https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1994262489865871380?s=20
Looking at historical data now that November is almost behind us, December has always been a bullish month. This has raised hopes for a potential rebound in December, which has registered average gains of over 4% in multiple cycles.
Shakeout Dynamics and Market Psychology
Another analyst highlighted a Bitcoin “shakeout zone,”that is lying beneath key support levels. This area captured sharp but temporary dips as price briefly broke below support before reclaiming it quickly. This movement created a pattern that often appeared near market bottoms.
Typically, during past shakeouts, sentiment shifted toward fear and short-term holders exited positions and leveraged traders faced rapid liquidation as whales accumulated and built positions in anticipation of a recovery.
These periods rarely coincide with optimism, instead they emerge during market exhaustion and forced selling periods and end up setting the stage for upward momentum.
Intraday Strength, Market Cap Growth, and Exchange Outflows
Intraday charts show a steady accumulation phase despite recent price volatility. Price remained consolidated between $90.5K and $91.5K for most of the day. Then it broke out above $92.5K, then $93K in a gradual move backed by expanding volume.
This was followed by a rise in the Crypto market capitalization which also climbed from $1.65 trillion to $1.85 trillion between November 22–28. Registering significant gains around November 26–27 which reflects sustained demand across major assets, even as price stayed down over the month.
To add on to that, exchange balances are shrinking and have dropped from 2.8 million to 2.1 million. This is happening amid price corrections which suggests continued accumulation by long-term holders.
Michael Saylor who is the founder of MicroStrategy added a remark that it is a “Black Friday”. This remark further emphasizes that prominent investors view this pullback as an opportunity to buy rather than a sell signal.
Looking Ahead: Will December Flip Bullish?
With November closing lower by a over 16% fall, attention has turned to December. Historically this month has always recorded an averaging +4.75% gains upside potential.
These factors show that there is a possibility that Bitcoin could regain momentum and reverse November’s losses.
